2017 PGA Championship Preview: History, Field, and Storylines

Quick Facts

Dates: August 10-13, 2017
Location: Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, NC (7,600 yards, Par 71)
Purse: $10,500,000

Course History

Although a new major venue, Quail Hollow Club is one of the better-known courses for both players and fans due to its hosting of the Wells Fargo Championship every year.  Originally designed by George W. Cobb, Quail Hollow has undergone several renovations since opening in 1961, the most recent of which occurred just following the 2016 Wells Fargo and saw holes 1, 2, 5, and 11 changed under the hand of Tom Fazio in preparation for its major championship debut.  

Field

This is where things start to get really interesting, as the Quail Hollow seems to have a knack for forcing superstar golfers to the top of the leaderboard.  Rory McIlroy has had a phenomenal career here, bringing home two trophies, a runner-up finish, and a handful of other top-tens.  Rickie Fowler, too, has won at Quail Hollow and was the 54-hole leader in 2016 before falling back on Sunday.  Rory and Rickie, though, are far from the only superstar golfers to have found success at Quail Hollow.  The table below shows just how many major winners have won or gotten second between 2003 and 2016 (the 2017 edition of the tournament was held elsewhere).  For the sake of clarity, I've excluded Tiger's major wins.

	Winner	Runner-up	Combined
Masters	1	7	8
U.S. Open	3	5	8
Open Championship	1	3	4
PGA Championship	5	3	8
Total	10	18	28

Since the first edition of the Wells Fargo Championship in 2003, half of the fourteen winners have at least one major championship trophy.  The list of runners-up is just as impressive; ten of the eighteen - yes, over half - runners-up are major winners.

For comparison, I've included the same table below, but for Muirfield Village Golf Club, another course known for producing superstar winners.  Again, Tiger Woods' majors are excluded.

	Winner	Runner-up	Combined
Masters	0	3	3
U.S. Open	3	3	6
Open Championship	2	1	3
PGA Championship	1	0	1
Total	6	7	13

Storylines

The storylines coming into this year's PGA Championship are as good as any in recent memory, starting with Jordan Spieth completing the career grand slam at the age of just 24 -- younger than anyone else in history.  Rory McIlroy, who has owned three of the four legs of the career grand slam since 2014, has a chance to deny Spieth and end his three-year major drought at his de facto home course.  Rickie Fowler, also a favorite, could leave the 18th green a winner for the second time at Quail Hollow, removing his name from the "best player not to win a major" club.  Speaking of that, long-suffering member and past Quail Hollow runner-up Sergio Garcia could bring home the Wanamaker to keep his new green jacket company, silencing the critics once and for all.

On the less exciting end, Jim Furyk, whose history at Quail Hollow includes a win and a pair of second-place finishes, could break out of his slump and add a second major trophy to his collection.  Surprisingly, Jim is not currently fully-exempt for next season, and his finish here could potentially be a factor in how much we see him playing for the rest of his career.  He only has a handful of tournaments left to move into the top 125 in the FedExCup standings, and the combination of his history at Quail Hollow and the larger purse of points up for grabs makes this tournament his best chance to do so.  If he doesn't end up securing full eligibility, it's entirely possible that he'll choose to play a limited schedule for the remainder of his career.  Jim's made plenty of money, is a lock for the Hall of Fame, and is the 2018 Ryder Cup captain; in other words, he has better things to do than hang around the Web.com Tour trying to regain his PGA Tour card, should he lose it.

CTG Picks

Low Risk: 

• Rory McIlroy (7-to-1).  As discussed above, Rory has an unmatched history at Quail Hollow, is coming off of a top-five at the Open, and is playing well at Firestone.  Just like seeing Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler fist-bumping at the 2014 PGA sparked him to victory, the threat of Jordan Spieth completing the grand slam before him could propel Rory to a third PGA Championship title.
• Jordan Spieth (7-to-1).  With the exception of one hole at Augusta in 2016, Jordan always seems to perform during big moments, and none would be bigger than closing out the career grand slam in a mere three seasons and just weeks after his 24th birthday.
• Rickie Fowler (16-to-1).  Rickie has had a sneakily good season, winning the Honda Classic, contending in the Masters and the U.S. Open, and is currently in possession of the second-best scoring average on tour.  When his good form -- arguably his best ever -- is combined with his winning history at Quail Hollow, it's easy to see why he is a great pick to win.
• Hideki Matsuyama (18-to-1).  Hideki Matsuyama started the season with a 1-2-1-1-1-2-T27-T32-1 streak, and, although he has cooled down in the months since, he has still managed to notch top-15 finishes in all three majors this year, including a T2 in the U.S. Open.  He has made three previous appearances at Quail Hollow, making the cut each time with two top-25 finishes and a best of T11 in 2016.

Medium Risk:

• Brooks Koepka (25-to-1).  Brooks, although having only won once on the PGA Tour prior to his U.S. Open win, always shows up in the majors, especially the PGA.  He has top-5s in his two previous PGA Championship starts, has gone T11-1-T6 in majors this year, and has finished no worse than T21 in a major over his last nine starts.  While he has never played at Quail Hollow in a tournament, his history in majors is more than enough to qualify him as a likely contender.
• Phil Mickelson (50-to-1).  Yes, Phil has not won since the 2013 Open Championship.  Yes, Tiger has a more recent win and, yes, Jordan Spieth has won 10 tournaments and three majors since then.  He has had quite a few close calls, though, including the 2014 PGA, the 2015 Masters, the 2016 Open, and -- you guessed it -- the 2015 and 2016 editions of the Wells Fargo Championship.  His full history at Quail Hollow, from when he first played in 2004 up until 2016, is as follows: T5-T7-T35-T3-T12-T5-2-T9-T26-3-T11-T4-T4.  In 13 starts, he has 7 top-5s, 9 top-10s, and has never finished worse than 35th with only two finishes worse than 12th.  Currently, he has only missed one cut in a year that seems to be trending towards an end to his four-year winless streak.  At 50-to-1, I'd venture to say Phil is a value pick.
• Ian Poulter (80-to-1).  After regaining his Tour card in perhaps the strangest way possible, Poulter has played impressively well, finishing second at the Players, contending in the Open, and finishing one shot out of a playoff in his most recent start.  While he has a limited and uneventful history at Quail Hollow, don't be shocked if Poulter vaults himself into contention.

High Risk:

• Lucas Glover (150-to-1).  Although you wouldn't guess it, U.S. Open winner Lucas Glover has one of the better histories at Quail Hollow, including a win and a runner-up finish.  While he hasn't contended in many tournaments this year, Lucas has had a solid season and currently sits in the top-60 of the FedExCup standings.  His history at Quail Hollow and major-winning pedigree make him a great value at 150-to-1.
• James Hahn (200-to-1).  James is the most recent winner at Quail Hollow, which is the bulk of why he made this list.  After a mediocre start to the season, James led the Byron Nelson for much of the final round before lipping out a wedge shot that would have earned him a spot in a playoff.  He has continued his better play since then, tying for 10th in his most recent start.  While he hasn't played particularly well in majors, he has shown the ability to perform under the gun, beating Dustin Johnson in a playoff at Riviera and fighting off Phil, Rory, and Rickie to win at Quail Hollow in 2016.  At 200-to-1, he's got to be worth at least a few bucks.

Very High Risk:

• Davis Love III (500-to-1).  Don't count the winning Ryder Cup captain out just yet.  Yes, he's five years older than any other man to win a major.  However, it was less than two years ago that Davis out-dueled Tiger down the stretch to win the Wyndham Championship and became the second-oldest to win on the PGA Tour, and it was less than a month ago that Davis was in contention heading into Sunday at the Greenbrier Classic.  He still has plenty of length, with his 289.4 average slotting in right around the middle of the pack, so there's no physical reason preventing him from being competitive.  He hasn't played at much at Quail Hollow recently, and his older results are a mixed bag containing quite a few 10-25 finishes and about as many missed cuts.  Still, at 500-to-1, it might be worth tossing some change his way.

Stay Away:

• Jason Day (22-to-1).  Jason Day's Tiger-esque performance from late 2015 through the 2016 Players seems far in the rearview mirror.  Injuries, family health problems, and perhaps heightened expectations have taken their toll on Jason, and he just hasn't looked the same this season.  He has shown some signs of life, such as making a playoff at the Byron Nelson, but his 22-to-1 odds seem criminally high, especially when compared with Brooks Koepka's set at 25-to-1.
• Matt Kuchar (40-to-1).  To his credit, Matt has had a good year in the majors, highlighted by his runner-up finish to Jordan Spieth at the Open.  However, contending in majors is exhausting, especially when you ultimately come up short, as Matt was the first to admit.  The PGA Championship will also be his fifth-straight event, and during that span, he will have visited four different countries.  That stretch would be tiring for anybody -- 20-something Rickie Fowler never plays in more than three-straight events, even if they are all in the same general area, because he is too fatigued by the end of the third to play his best -- but Matt's 39-year-old body will be even more prone to wearing out.  After a few weeks of rest, though, be on the lookout for Kuch to cash-in during the FedExCup playoffs.
• Danny Willett (175-to-1).  I wouldn't be surprised if the 2016 Masters champion now counts his green jacket as a bad luck charm, as he couldn't have gone into a deeper slump following his first major victory.  His last 8 starts consist of 3 MCs, 3 WDs, and no top-50 finishes.  As I'm writing this, Danny is on track to add another acronym to his collection -- DFL -- currently sitting tied for last after the first round of the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.  Danny will likely regain his form in the reasonably near future, but don't look for it to be at the PGA Championship.